South East Queensland entered the second half of 2026 with higher property values, severe affordability constraints, tight rental availability and a noticeable loss of momentum in buyer activity. The region continues to outperform several larger Australian housing markets, although the rapid gains recorded earlier in the year have begun to moderate.
Brisbane dwelling values increased by 0.3 per cent in June while the national home value index declined by 0.4 per cent. The Brisbane result preserved positive growth, yet it represented a major slowdown from the stronger gains recorded during the first quarter of the year. Sydney and Melbourne moved further into decline during the June quarter, leaving Brisbane among a smaller group of capital cities where values continued to advance.
The current market can therefore be described as resilient, expensive and increasingly selective. Population growth and insufficient housing delivery continue to support demand, while higher interest rates, reduced borrowing capacity and improved listing numbers are giving buyers more time to assess their options.
South East Queensland Has Entered a Slower Phase
The strongest phase of the current upswing appears to have passed. South East Queensland property prices remain high and many areas are still recording growth, although buyers are showing greater sensitivity to price, property condition, location and ongoing ownership costs.
This change can be seen across several measures. Price growth has slowed, Brisbane listings are higher than they were a year ago, auction conditions have softened nationally and sales volumes have declined. Buyers who previously felt compelled to make an immediate offer may now have time to attend a second inspection, compare nearby sales and examine the property more carefully.
Queensland property transaction data for the June quarter also points to a substantial reduction in activity. House sales, unit sales and vacant land transactions all fell considerably from the previous quarter. The decline does not necessarily indicate that demand has disappeared. It shows that fewer buyers are completing transactions as borrowing costs, affordability limits and uncertainty influence purchasing decisions.
The slowdown remains uneven. Well-presented homes in tightly held suburbs can attract several serious buyers, particularly where the property offers usable land, convenient transport, good natural light or flexible living space. Properties carrying obvious maintenance requirements, flood exposure, difficult access, compromised layouts or ambitious pricing can remain available for longer.
Conditions also vary substantially between houses, units, townhouses, new estates, coastal property and premium acreage. A single description of the South East Queensland market can obscure these differences.
The Headline Prices Remain High
Quarterly sales data for the first three months of 2026 placed the Brisbane City Council median house sale price at $1.46 million. The median unit sale price reached $880,000. Across the broader Greater Brisbane market, houses recorded a median of $1.15 million and units reached $837,500.
Moreton Bay houses recorded a quarterly median of $1.053 million, while Ipswich houses reached $901,825. Gold Coast houses recorded $1.38 million, Sunshine Coast houses reached $1.29 million and Noosa houses reached $1.68 million. Unit medians included $935,000 on the Gold Coast, $880,000 on the Sunshine Coast and almost $1.23 million in Noosa.
These figures describe the middle sale within each group of completed transactions. They should not be treated as a valuation for every property in the region. Changes in the type, size and location of homes sold during a quarter can move the median even when the value of an individual property has changed by a smaller amount.
A home value index follows the estimated value of the broader housing stock and can consequently produce a different result. This explains how quarterly sale medians can show strong gains while the latest monthly index indicates that the rate of growth is slowing.
By the end of June, Brisbane’s estimated median dwelling value was approximately $1.12 million. Values remained about 17.4 per cent higher over the year, although growth had slowed to 0.3 per cent during June and 1.3 per cent across the quarter.
Brisbane Remains Resilient as Buyer Choice Improves
Brisbane continues to sit near the centre of South East Queensland demand. Employment concentration, established services, universities, hospitals, transport networks and limited land in many inner and middle suburbs support a wide range of buyer groups.
The city is also becoming harder to enter. Higher prices and interest rates have substantially increased the income required to service a typical mortgage. Between January and May 2026, the annual household income needed to purchase a median Brisbane house increased by more than $17,000. Even lower-priced houses became harder to finance, with the required income for a lower-quartile Brisbane house increasing by about $14,500 over the same period.
Improved listing numbers are beginning to alter the balance. Total Brisbane listings rose by 1.2 per cent during June and were 8 per cent higher than a year earlier. Fresh listings declined during the month as winter reduced the flow of new campaigns, meaning the increase in total supply was partly created by properties taking longer to sell.
Brisbane asking prices declined during the weeks leading into mid-July while remaining substantially higher than they were a year earlier. Combined asking prices were about 1.1 per cent lower over the rolling month and 12.2 per cent higher over 12 months. The combination of a monthly decline and strong annual growth captures the current market well: values have risen substantially, yet sellers can no longer assume that every property will move quickly at an ambitious price.
Inner and middle-ring houses with scarce land remain difficult to replace. Apartments and townhouses are drawing demand from buyers who have been priced out of detached houses. At the same time, high body corporate contributions, building defects, poor sinking-fund positions and looming capital works can separate otherwise similar unit properties.
Moreton Bay, Ipswich and Logan Are Carrying the Affordability Trade
As Brisbane prices have climbed, demand has extended through the northern and western growth corridors and across Logan. These markets offer a broader selection of detached houses below inner-Brisbane prices, although the gap has narrowed considerably.
Moreton Bay recorded the strongest quarterly house price increase among the major Greater Brisbane local government areas during the March quarter, rising 5.3 per cent to a median of $1.053 million. Ipswich houses increased by 5.23 per cent to $901,825. Ipswich also recorded the strongest quarterly unit growth in the group, while Logan unit prices increased by 6.63 per cent to $700,000.
Population data provides an important part of the explanation. Moreton Bay added 10,951 residents in the year to June 2025, Ipswich added 9,138 and Logan added 11,949. Ipswich was Queensland’s fastest-growing larger local government area, expanding by 3.5 per cent, followed by Logan at 3.1 per cent.
Ripley alone gained 3,131 residents during the year, while Chambers Flat-Logan Reserve gained 1,812. These figures show where demand for new schools, roads, shopping, healthcare and housing is accumulating.
Recent transaction activity has remained concentrated in value-oriented growth corridors. Morayfield, Caboolture, Burpengary and Narangba have continued to attract house buyers in Moreton Bay, while Springfield Lakes and Redbank Plains have remained active in Ipswich.
Growth corridors can provide newer homes, larger lots and access to planned infrastructure. They can also contain substantial future land supply, multiple stages of competing estates and lengthy travel times. Buyers need to assess the individual estate, transport options, flood and bushfire considerations, nearby development approvals and the amount of similar housing that may be completed in future years.
The Gold Coast Market Is Expensive and Highly Segmented
The Gold Coast is no longer a broadly affordable alternative to Brisbane. Its March-quarter median house sale price reached $1.38 million following quarterly growth of 3.76 per cent. Units rose by 4.47 per cent to a median of $935,000.
The region contains several separate property markets. Beachfront apartments, canal homes, established family suburbs, hinterland acreage, new northern estates and high-rise investor stock respond to different buyers and economic conditions.
Scarce beachfront and waterfront properties can operate with little connection to the ordinary suburban market. Their buyers may be less dependent on mainstream lending and more influenced by the quality, position and rarity of the asset. High-value transactions across beachfront and riverfront South East Queensland remained prominent throughout the 2026 financial year.
The mainstream Gold Coast market faces stronger affordability constraints. Apartment buyers must account for body corporate costs, insurance, building age, short-term letting arrangements and future capital works. House buyers face a large price difference between central coastal locations and northern or inland suburbs.
Population growth remains supportive. The Gold Coast added 11,944 residents in the year to June 2025 and had an estimated population of 691,230. The region also recorded 1,390 residential lot registrations during the June 2026 quarter, the highest number among Queensland’s monitored local government areas.
That supply may relieve pressure in parts of the market, although newly registered lots still need to progress through sale, finance, construction and completion before they become occupied homes.
The Gold Coast also faces a growing tension between property values and local incomes. Strong interstate demand, retirement migration and high-end purchasing have increased prices, while the ordinary employment market has not delivered equivalent income growth for every household. This makes the region increasingly sensitive to borrowing costs and buyer sentiment.
The Sunshine Coast and Noosa Remain Supply-Constrained Premium Markets
The Sunshine Coast recorded a March-quarter house median of $1.29 million after quarterly growth of 3.2 per cent. Units increased by a more modest 0.57 per cent to $880,000. Noosa houses reached $1.68 million and units approached $1.23 million.
These medians reflect the extent to which the coastal market has changed. Buyers seeking a conventional family house near the beach now face prices that can meet or exceed many Brisbane suburbs.
The Sunshine Coast added 7,659 residents in the year to June 2025. Caloundra West-Baringa gained 1,980 residents, making it one of Queensland’s largest population-growth areas at the neighbourhood level.
New communities around Caloundra South provide much of the region’s accessible new housing supply. Established coastal areas have greater physical and planning constraints, strengthening the value of well-located existing property while creating challenges for renters and first-home buyers.
Premium coastal stock can also take longer to sell. During the March quarter, Noosa recorded median selling periods of 45.5 days for houses and 51.5 days for units, considerably longer than the fastest-moving Queensland markets. Higher prices reduce the number of qualified buyers and make accurate positioning especially important.
The market is also highly dependent on the precise location and property type. A renovated coastal house, an inland family home, a new apartment and a hinterland acreage property may face entirely different buyer pools even when they sit within the same broader region.
The Inland and Outer Markets Follow Different Cycles
Redland, Scenic Rim, Lockyer Valley, Somerset and Toowoomba add another layer to the South East Queensland market. These areas include bayside suburbs, commuter towns, agricultural land, acreage, regional centres, new estates and smaller communities with limited transaction volumes.
Redland added 2,891 residents in the year to June 2025. Lockyer Valley grew by 2.4 per cent and Scenic Rim by 2.2 per cent, placing both among Queensland’s faster-growing local government areas. Toowoomba added 2,201 residents.
Toowoomba recorded annual house median growth of 18.93 per cent and annual unit growth of 23.49 per cent in the March-quarter data. Houses and units were also selling quickly, with median selling periods of 14 and 12 days respectively.
Lower entry prices have contributed to demand in inland markets, yet buyers should avoid treating every outer area as interchangeable. Employment diversity, road access, water and wastewater services, future subdivisions, insurance costs and exposure to natural hazards can materially affect long-term demand.
Acreage and lifestyle property also require a different assessment from suburban housing. Water supply, fencing, access, vegetation, overlays, maintenance and the usability of the land can be as important as the dwelling itself.
Some inland and outer markets also record relatively few sales. A small number of unusually large, renovated or newly constructed properties can move a quarterly median sharply. Individual comparable sales remain more useful than a broad percentage change when assessing a particular home.
Units Are Becoming a Core Part of the Market
Units have recorded some of the strongest price growth in South East Queensland. Across Greater Brisbane, the quarterly median unit price rose by 5.74 per cent, with annual growth reaching 18.97 per cent. Brisbane City units increased by 6.67 per cent during the quarter, Ipswich units by 7.42 per cent, Logan units by 6.63 per cent and Moreton Bay units by 6.16 per cent.
This growth has been driven by buyers reaching the limit of what they can spend on a detached house. Smaller households, downsizers, investors and first-home buyers are competing for the same well-located apartment and townhouse stock.
The lower end of Brisbane’s unit market has become particularly expensive. By May, lower-quartile Brisbane units had become the most expensive entry-level apartment stock among the capital cities measured in the latest affordability analysis. The annual income needed to purchase a median Brisbane unit was also only slightly below the amount required for a median Sydney unit.
This does not mean every apartment will perform equally. Buyers are drawing sharper distinctions between spacious owner-occupier buildings and compact investor-oriented stock. Building quality, body corporate administration, lift and pool costs, insurance, parking, aspect, ventilation and nearby development supply can all influence resale demand.
Townhouses occupy an important middle position. They provide more separation and private outdoor space than many apartments while retaining a lower land component than detached houses. In established suburbs with limited new townhouse supply, this segment can attract strong competition.
Unit asking prices began to soften during the weeks leading into mid-July, falling by approximately 2.5 per cent over the rolling month. They remained about 17.5 per cent higher than a year earlier, showing that the market has eased from an elevated base.
Interest Rates Are the Main Brake on Demand
The cash rate stood at 4.35 per cent in mid-July 2026 following three increases earlier in the year. The rate was left unchanged at the June meeting while the effects of tighter financial conditions and elevated inflation were assessed. The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 11 August 2026.
Higher rates affect the market before a buyer reaches an open home. They reduce borrowing capacity, increase assessed repayments and place greater weight on existing household expenses. A property can remain desirable while moving beyond the amount a buyer is permitted to borrow.
This is one reason prices and transaction volumes can behave differently. Limited supply can keep prices relatively firm even as fewer households qualify to purchase. The market then becomes thinner, with a smaller pool of buyers competing for a smaller pool of suitable properties.
Existing owners with substantial equity are generally less affected than recent borrowers carrying large mortgages. Higher rates can therefore increase the difference between established homeowners, first-home buyers and investors relying heavily on debt.
The June quarter slowdown shows that the three rate increases are having an effect. The full impact may take longer to become visible because fixed-rate loans, lender assessment processes, household savings and the timing of property campaigns can delay changes in selling behaviour.
Listings Are Rising Without Forming a Supply Glut
Brisbane’s 8 per cent annual increase in total listings has improved buyer choice. The supply increase remains moderate compared with Sydney and Melbourne, where annual listing growth reached 17.4 and 19.6 per cent respectively during June.
Older Brisbane listings actually declined by 4.6 per cent during the month. This suggests that some long-running campaigns were eventually absorbed or withdrawn even as total stock increased.
Queensland distressed listings rose by 17 per cent during June, although national distressed stock remained below its level a year earlier. Available evidence did not show widespread forced selling. The increase deserves attention because repeated rate rises take time to flow through household finances, yet it should be viewed in proportion to the overall housing stock.
The practical result is a market where buyers have gained some leverage without gaining control everywhere. The strongest properties can still sell quickly. Secondary stock faces more competition and may require price adjustments.
The rise in listings also changes how buyers compare properties. Homes that may previously have received an offer simply because little else was available can now be assessed against several alternatives. Presentation, building condition and realistic pricing carry greater weight as choice improves.
Auction Conditions Reflect Reduced Urgency
Auction conditions weakened considerably during June before showing some improvement in July. Brisbane clearance rates fell to very low levels during parts of the month as buyers became more cautious and some sellers resisted adjusting their expectations.
By mid-July, Brisbane’s reported clearance rate had improved to about 43 per cent. This remained much weaker than the conditions seen during the earlier growth phase and indicated that a large proportion of auction campaigns were still failing to produce an immediate sale.
Brisbane is not exclusively an auction market, and clearance rates should not be treated as a complete measure of local conditions. They remain useful as an indicator of urgency, competition and the gap between buyer and seller expectations.
Properties passed in at auction may later sell by negotiation. Others may be withdrawn before auction or moved to private treaty campaigns, meaning the final outcome can differ from the result reported on auction day.
The Rental Market Remains Exceptionally Tight
Brisbane’s residential vacancy rate remained at 0.9 per cent in June, with 3,065 vacant dwellings measured across the city. A rental market is generally considered tight well before vacancies fall below one per cent.
Combined Brisbane asking rents increased by 1 per cent over the month and were 9.1 per cent higher than a year earlier. This was among the strongest annual increases recorded across the eastern capital cities.
By the week ending 12 July, advertised Brisbane house rents averaged approximately $841 per week and unit rents averaged about $644 per week. The combined asking rent was approximately $752 per week.
The rental shortage supports investor income and creates difficult conditions for tenants. Higher rents can encourage some households to consider buying, though the deposit and serviceability barriers remain substantial.
Strong rental demand also needs to be assessed against ownership costs. Interest, insurance, body corporate contributions, rates, repairs and property management expenses have increased for many owners. Gross rental growth does not automatically produce a stronger net return.
The unit market carries particular importance because apartments can be delivered at greater density near employment and transport. However, the development pipeline needs projects to remain financially viable through planning, presales, construction and completion.
Population Growth Continues to Feed Housing Demand
Queensland’s population increased by 92,162 people during the year to December 2025. The state’s domestic economy grew by 3.1 per cent over the year to the March 2026 quarter, while employment increased by 46,400 people over the year to May.
Much of the population increase continues to settle in South East Queensland. During the year to June 2025, Brisbane added 21,464 residents, Logan added 11,949, the Gold Coast added 11,944, Moreton Bay added 10,951, Ipswich added 9,138 and the Sunshine Coast added 7,659.
These numbers create demand for both owner-occupied and rental housing. They also place pressure on roads, schools, health services, public transport and utilities.
Population growth alone does not guarantee price growth. Household formation, incomes, credit availability and the pace of construction also matter. It does, however, provide a durable source of housing demand in a region where completed supply remains constrained.
New arrivals do not all enter the purchasing market immediately. Many rent first, particularly when relocating for work, education or lifestyle reasons. This places population growth directly into competition for limited rental stock before some households eventually move into home ownership.
Housing Delivery Is Struggling to Match Demand
Queensland completed approximately 32,900 dwellings in the 12 months to the December 2025 quarter. The annual contribution required under the national housing target was around 49,300 dwellings, leaving actual delivery about one-third below that pace.
Trend building approvals reached approximately 3,975 dwellings in March 2026, slightly below the monthly rate needed to meet the target. Construction costs, labour availability, infrastructure requirements and project feasibility continue to affect delivery.
Planning approvals show that potential supply exists. Brisbane had approvals representing a possible 52,762 multiple dwellings at the end of the December 2025 quarter. Logan’s identified broadhectare land had an expected yield of 103,953 dwellings as at March 2026.
Approved or identified supply should not be confused with completed homes. Projects can be redesigned, delayed, staged or abandoned. Infrastructure can also limit how quickly land progresses from a planning designation to an occupied property.
This gap between theoretical capacity and completed housing is one of the most important forces supporting South East Queensland prices and rents.
Even areas with several years of approved land can experience limited market-ready supply. Roads, sewerage, water infrastructure, financing, contractor availability and final lot registration can delay the point at which a buyer is able to commence construction.
Investor Decisions Are Becoming More Complex
Rental demand remains strong, yet higher borrowing costs and elevated purchase prices have compressed the financial margin on many properties. Investors are placing greater emphasis on net yield, land tax exposure, insurance, body corporate costs and the likelihood of future capital expenditure.
Federal tax changes applying from 1 July 2027 will limit negative gearing for residential property investments to new builds. The existing 50 per cent capital gains tax discount will be replaced by a system involving indexation of the cost base and a minimum tax on real capital gains. Transitional arrangements apply, and the implications will depend on the property, acquisition date, ownership structure and owner’s circumstances.
The changes may direct more investor demand toward newly constructed housing. They may also reduce demand for some established investment stock as buyers reassess after-tax outcomes. Tax consequences require advice based on the individual investor’s position.
The strongest investment demand is likely to concentrate on properties that combine tenant appeal, manageable ownership costs and a broad future resale market. A high advertised rent provides only one part of that assessment.
Investors also need to distinguish between a rental shortage and the financial performance of an individual property. A dwelling can attract tenants quickly while still producing a weak return after interest, insurance, rates, maintenance and body corporate expenses are considered.
Is South East Queensland Becoming a Buyer’s Market?
Parts of the region have moved toward more balanced conditions. Buyers have more listings to compare, price growth has slowed and properties with weaknesses are facing greater scrutiny.
The region as a whole has not developed the stock levels or widespread price reductions normally associated with a strong buyer’s market. Rental availability remains extremely limited, population growth remains substantial and housing completions remain below the required pace.
The most accurate description is a divided market. Buyers can negotiate firmly on properties that are overpriced, poorly presented or difficult to compare. Sellers retain an advantage where the property is scarce, well located and priced within the range supported by recent transactions.
Market power now depends more heavily on the individual property.
Buyer-friendly conditions are currently most visible where a property has been available for an extended period, has passed in at auction, requires substantial work or competes with several similar listings. Seller-friendly conditions remain visible where several qualified buyers are seeking a property type that is difficult to replace.
What Buyers Are Facing
Finance preparation has become central to a successful purchase. A buyer’s budget can change after an interest-rate movement, lender reassessment or examination of recurring property costs.
Recent comparable sales deserve greater weight than broad suburb growth figures. A renovated house on a level block cannot be directly compared with a property affected by flooding, steep access, traffic, major repairs or limited parking.
Buyers also have more reason to examine how easily a property could be resold. Flexible floorplans, functional outdoor areas, storage, parking, natural light and access to daily services can support demand through changing market conditions.
The slower pace provides more opportunity for careful due diligence. It does not remove the need to act decisively when a suitable property attracts several qualified buyers.
Buyers should also account for costs that may not be visible in the advertised price. Insurance, body corporate contributions, council rates, maintenance, commuting expenses and future building work can materially change the affordability of two similarly priced properties.
What Sellers Are Facing
Accurate pricing has become more important as buyers regain choice. A price based on the strongest sale in the suburb may fail where that sale involved superior land, condition, views or accommodation.
The first weeks of a campaign usually provide the clearest indication of market response. Low enquiry, repeated inspection without offers and consistent buyer feedback can show that the price or presentation needs attention.
Preparation also carries greater weight in a selective market. Minor maintenance, clear access, good lighting and a coherent presentation help buyers understand the property without becoming distracted by avoidable defects.
Sellers should also examine their next move before committing to a campaign. Selling conditions may be favourable for their property while the replacement property remains difficult or expensive to secure.
A longer selling period does not automatically mean that a property is unwanted. It may indicate that the initial asking position was above the level supported by current borrowing capacity or that the property requires a buyer with unusually specific needs.
The Outlook for the Rest of 2026
South East Queensland is likely to record slower and more uneven conditions through the remainder of 2026. The region has retained positive price momentum longer than Sydney and Melbourne, yet affordability and higher borrowing costs are limiting the number of buyers able to participate.
The direction of interest rates will remain critical. Another increase would reduce borrowing capacity further and could expand the difference between seller expectations and buyer budgets. A prolonged period at the current rate would still allow earlier increases to continue flowing through household finances.
Listings will provide another important signal. A gradual increase can improve transaction activity by giving owners greater confidence that they will find another home. A rapid accumulation of unsold stock would place greater pressure on prices, particularly in areas with substantial competing supply.
Population growth and inadequate housing delivery continue to provide structural support. These forces make a uniform fall across South East Queensland less likely than a market characterised by slower growth, longer negotiations and wider differences between properties.
The June result suggests Brisbane may remain positive while recording much weaker gains than those seen earlier in the year. Conditions could change quickly if borrowing costs rise again, consumer confidence deteriorates or listings accelerate during the spring selling season.
The Market Is Becoming More Local
The South East Queensland property market remains one of Australia’s strongest, although strength is now being tested by expensive credit and declining affordability.
Brisbane continues to grow at a slower pace. Moreton Bay, Ipswich and Logan are absorbing buyers searching for greater value. The Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Noosa remain premium markets with significant variation between individual property types. Toowoomba and several inland areas continue to benefit from relative affordability and population movement.
The next stage of the cycle will reward accurate assessment. Broad regional growth figures are becoming less useful on their own. Building condition, location, land, insurance, transport, future supply and ongoing ownership costs are carrying more influence over price and selling time.
South East Queensland has moved beyond the rapid, broadly shared growth seen earlier in the cycle. Demand remains, supply remains constrained and buyers remain active. The difference is that the market now expects each property to justify its price.
The information provided is general in nature and reflects market conditions and available data at the time of writing. Property values, interest rates, lending conditions, taxation settings and local market conditions can change. Buyers, sellers and investors should obtain advice suited to their circumstances before making financial, legal, taxation or property decisions.
You might also like
Disclaimer: Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, but we make no guarantees regarding its completeness or reliability. The data is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or consequences arising from its use. Users should verify details with relevant sources and seek professional advice where appropriate for the most accurate and up-to-date guidance.
